The ringgit recently reached a record low against the Thai baht at RM1 to 7.60 baht. (AFP pic)
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PETALING JAYA: An economist has attempted to explain the strengthening of the Thai baht against the ringgit amid the recent war of words over the state of the currency between Dr Mahathir Mohamad and former prime minister Najib Razak. Firdaos Rosli of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (Isis) said the issue was more than the baht and the ringgit, and points to Malaysia’s “outdated economic models” compared to neighbours such as Thailand and Vietnam.
“We are losing steam in a big way when you look at the trajectory of Thailand and Vietnam’s economies over the last two decades,” he told FMT. The ringgit reached a record low against the Thai baht at RM13.15 to 100 baht (RM1 to 7.60 baht), prompting Najib to blame the dip on Pakatan Harapan’s management of the economy.
In response, Mahathir said the ringgit’s decline against the baht was not an indicator of the country’s economy, saying it was tied to the performance of the US dollar. “What becomes a problem is the US dollar because of what is happening with (US President Donald) Trump,” the prime minister said.
But Firdaos said it was more important to look at the larger structural issue facing the Malaysian economy. He said for some time now, there has been no political will to address Malaysia’s declining economic position regionally and globally. “The quality of our trade is being represented by volume, not value,” said Firdaos, who is the economics, trade and regional integration director at Isis. Citing World Bank figures, Firdaos said in 1999, Malaysia’s trade-to-GDP stood at 218%, two times the GDP, but this dropped to 136% in 2017.
“If you look at Thailand and Vietnam, in 1999, their trade-to-GDP was 101% and 103%. In 2017, Thailand’s trade-to-GDP increased to 123% while Vietnam’s shot up to 200%.”
Firdaos said a similar trend could be seen in exports-to-GDP, where Malaysia dropped from 121% in 1999 to 71% in 2017, while Thailand and Vietnam’s exports-to-GDP grew from 56.4% to 68.2%, and 50% to 101.6% respectively in the same period. He said while there are many variables to explain why the baht was outperforming the ringgit, the Thai currency was largely driven by exports. Thailand and Vietnam’s exports, he said, came largely from the manufacturing sector while Malaysia had a higher reliance on exporting commodities like petroleum, palm oil and rubber, which are subject to fluctuations.
“In 1999, commodities accounted for 22% of Malaysia’s exports. In 2018, it accounted for around 33%,” he said.
The robust demand for the baht, he said, was due to Thailand producing and exporting more manufactured goods than Malaysia. Commodities only account for 11% of its exports. Firdaos said international reserves was also a factor as it gave an indication to investors as to how exciting a country’s economy is, and that in Malaysia’s case, its reserves was around the US$100 billion mark in 2008. On the other hand, Thailand’s reserves were double that of Malaysia.
Malaysia’s ‘outdated strategy’
Similarly, Vietnam’s reserves too has doubled in the last three years, which Firdaos said showed investors were more receptive to Thailand and Vietnam’s domestic policies. In Thailand, he added, this was especially noticeable with Japanese investments, while in Vietnam, it was its aggressive overhauling of its economy where thousands of state-owned enterprises were “getting out of the picture”.
“Here, we are still trying to use the same old strategy of getting GLCs to spearhead the economy. Whether it works is debatable. Can we expect a different result this time?”
Firdaos said Malaysia was still trying to use outdated economic models of developing the local economy, particularly through tariffs, and this was worsened by inconsistent investment policies. “Unlike in Thailand and Vietnam, Malaysia’s investment policy is highly bureaucratic as we do not have a single foreign investment authority. Investors want stability and security that future profits can be seen in their projections. If Malaysia cannot offer such confidence, our regional peers will.”
He said Malaysia should use free trade agreements (FTAs) to its full advantage, something which has been hindered by import tariffs.
“We need to clearly spell out what needs to be done in the interest of the nation and in doing so, equal weightage must be given to politics, social and economic objectives for the country.
“Is it logical to pursue a certain policy objective and ignore the overall national interest where the economy is concerned?
“This is us against the world. As a nation, we must decide where the ship is headed regardless of who is the prime minister or which party is in power.”
Freemalaysiatoday
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Все люди разные. 
Одна я одинаковая. 
